This is what happens when you keep stacking wins on top of one another.
You can see all the way to October.
You’re able to look beyond the slumps and injuries, the regression and the pursuers. You see things the computers missed and the critics overlooked. You see a version of your ballclub that may not endure but continues to outrun disappointment in the rearview mirror.
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No, the Rays are not as dominant as their record currently suggests.
Which makes this hot streak equally impressive and important.
In season previews, ESPN, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus had all predicted a last-place finish in the American League East and somewhere between 79 and 82 wins. Yet, as of Monday morning, the Rays were on pace for 109 wins.
So, what are they doing right?
“We are constantly putting pressure on pitchers with the ability to make contact. That can wear some pitchers down, and it has,” manager Kevin Cash said. “We’ve played pretty elite defense, outside of the corners, and I think our bullpen has been lights-out. Take away eight games, that all came at the same time, and they’ve been incredible.
“The rotation has been everything we could have asked for.”
They say you can’t win a pennant in April, but the Rays aren’t listening. With 26 wins in their first 39 games, they already tilted the odds in their favor. In the wild-card era, there have been 37 teams that have started at 25-12 or better in a season not interrupted by a work stoppage or pandemic. Of those teams, 89.2% went on to win 90 games or more.
That’s not a guarantee of success, but it’s a suggestion that the Rays have more than just good mojo.
Even if they play .500 the rest of the season, they’ll be in contention for a wild card.
So, our job this morning is to figure out what’s the truth and what’s random? What’s sustainable, and what’s unlikely.
What’s real, and what’s a lie?
Rotation is the bomb
Yeah, not really. Don’t get me wrong, the rotation is still the strongest part of the roster. And the 3.13 ERA compiled by the starters has been well earned.
But there are some indicators that darker days are around the corner. Health, for example. Ryan Pepiot is out for the season, Joe Boyle has been out for nearly a month and Steven Matz went on the injured list this week to get out ahead of some elbow inflammation. Shane McClanahan’s return has been nothing short of amazing, but he’ll likely need some down time this summer after not pitching competitively for more than two years.
And while Matz and Nick Martinez have been two of the best free-agent acquisitions of the year (the Rays are 13-2 in their starts), there are some worrisome signs. Neither pitcher is getting a lot of strikeouts and both currently have career bests in batting average on balls in play. That suggests some good fortune, thus far.
Small-ball nirvana
You better believe it. After a years-long flirtation with exit velocity, the Rays have gone another direction in 2026.
This is a lineup built around speed and contact. The Rays have the second lowest strikeout rate in the majors, and they went into the weekend with more stolen bases than anyone. Those are qualities that do not typically disappear. By embracing bunting, running and fewer fly balls, the offense is not as explosive, but it should be slump-resistant.
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Also, the Yandy Diaz/Jonathan Aranda/Junior Caminero triumvirate would be the envy of most GMs.
Best of all, there is no one having a career year through the season’s first six weeks. In fact, the offense could get stronger when Gavin Lux finally comes off his injury rehab and the Rays start getting more out of centerfield.
Uncommonly good bullpen
This one is a little harder to figure because of the volatility of relief pitchers.
On the plus side, the Rays have a versatile assortment of relievers who can provide different arm angles and styles from inning to inning. The collective ERA is not impressive (4.11), but that’s mostly due to a disastrous first week.
On the down side, there’s not a lot of history here. Ian Seymour is in his first full season as a reliever, and Hunter Bigge had 32 innings in the majors coming into this season. Cole Sulser is flirting with career-best numbers at age 36, while several high-leverage pitchers (Garrett Cleavinger, Griffin Jax and Edwin Uceta) have struggled with injuries and performance issues.
Bryan Baker and Kevin Kelly have stepped up in a big way, and the Rays do have an AL-high six relievers with saves. Still, a lot of this has the feel of smoke-and-mirrors.
Close games and comebacks
This is probably the most worrisome part of the first six weeks.
The Rays have had an uncommon number of comebacks already, and they have the best record (8-1) in one-run games in the majors. Records in one-run games often fluctuate wildly from season to season (Rays went from 30-22 in 2024 to 22-29 in 2025), which gives them more of a random feel. And that means, at some point, the law of averages will likely catch up to the Rays in games decided in the final innings.
Yet, having said all of that, the bottom line is the Rays went into the weekend with a 7½-game lead in the AL wild-card race and ended the weekend in first place in the AL East.
Perhaps the Rays have already used a sizable portion of their good fortune allotment, but the important thing is they didn’t waste it.
You stack wins in April and May, and the mountain is a little easier to scale in October.
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