{"id":1315,"date":"2026-05-21T18:05:46","date_gmt":"2026-05-21T18:05:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/orlandorelocationreport.com\/?p=1315"},"modified":"2026-05-21T18:05:46","modified_gmt":"2026-05-21T18:05:46","slug":"noaa-expects-below-normal-hurricane-season-thanks-to-strong-el-nino","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/orlandorelocationreport.com\/?p=1315","title":{"rendered":"NOAA expects \u2018below normal\u2019 hurricane season, thanks to strong El Ni\u00f1o"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Floridians should see fewer tropical cyclones than average form in the Atlantic Ocean during this year\u2019s hurricane season, which begins June 1, thanks to a strong El Ni\u00f1o weather phenomenon on the other side of the world, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.<\/p>\n

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The federal weather agency on Thursday predicted \u201ca below normal\u201d season with between 8 and 14 named storms in the North Atlantic Basin through Nov. 30. Of those, NOAA experts predict between three and six will be hurricanes, with between one and three\u00a0 major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.<\/p>\n

Still, officials urged residents to be ready.<\/p>\n

\u201cDon\u2019t let words \u2018below average\u2019 change the way you prepare,\u201d said Ken Graham, director of the NOAA\u2019s National Weather Service, during a press conference in Lakeland. \u201cAll it takes is one [catastrophic storm]. \u2026.You can\u2019t let your guard down. Even in \u2018below average\u2019 seasons, there can be big ones. And we\u2019ve got to be ready.\u201d<\/p>\n

NOAA\u2019s first forecast follows other weather institutions\u2019 prognostications \u2014 including from Colorado State University and AccuWeather \u2014 for a below average hurricane season because of an overbearing El Ni\u00f1o warming pattern expected to form in the Pacific Ocean in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n

NOAA\u2019s forecast is closely watched because it taps into the federal agency\u2019s vast resources \u2014 including data from upgraded computer modeling, meteorologists, drones and satellites. While weather predictions are uncertain at best, the agency is known for its accuracy.<\/p>\n

NOAA\u00a0 Administrator Neil Jacobs pointed out the agency has started this year to use AI, or artificial intelligence, to enhance its weather models.<\/p>\n

An \u201caverage\u201d or \u201cnormal\u201d season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes and three major ones, according to NOAA. A Category 3 or higher tropical storm has sustained wind speeds of at least 111 mph.<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

Specifically, NOAA researchers gave a 55% probability of a \u201cbelow normal\u201d hurricane season this year, a 35% near normal and a 10% above normal.<\/p>\n

The NOAA forecast does not contain landfall predictions, such as the probability of hurricanes hitting Florida or landing along the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast.<\/p>\n

Matthew Rosencrantz, NOAA\u2019s lead hurricane forecaster and a climate scientist, said the last time the agency predicted a \u201cbelow normal\u201d hurricane season in its May forecast was more than a decade ago, in 2015.<\/p>\n

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Its prediction was correct.\u00a0That year, 11 total storms formed in the Atlantic, including four hurricanes, of which two were major. But one of those was Hurricane Joaquin, a Category 4 storm which devastated a portion of the Bahamas.<\/p>\n

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It may seem odd that what happens in the middle of the Pacific Ocean \u2014 nearly half a world away \u2014 affects the tropical storms Floridians see during a hurricane season.<\/p>\n

During an El Ni\u00f1o year, the waters in the central and eastern Pacific near the equator become warmer, increasing the chances for stronger storms in that region. NOAA forecasts an \u201cabove normal\u201d hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific, with only a 20% chance of a near normal season, and a 10% chance of below normal.<\/p>\n

But that pattern, in turn, leads to sinking air and higher pressure in the Atlantic, along with stronger upper level wind shear, factors that hinder hurricanes here.<\/p>\n

This year\u2019s bully El Ni\u00f1o is on track to become one of the strongest on record, according to NOAA researchers.<\/p>\n

In a more moderate El Ni\u00f1o, temperatures in the central Pacific would rise to about 1.8 degrees above average. But this year, many forecasts show the water temperatures soaring to a whopping 5.4 degrees.<\/p>\n

Last year, a relatively mild Atlantic hurricane season saw 13 named storms, including five hurricanes, four of which were major. NOAA in May 2025 had predicted between 13 and 19 named storms \u2014 including up to 10 hurricanes, with three to five of them major.<\/p>\n

Hurricane Melissa in late October was the most powerful storm in 2025 with maximum sustained winds of 190 mph. In all, it caused 95 fatalities and more than $12 billion in damage. Most of the destruction occurred in Jamaica after the Category 5 storm plowed into New Hope.<\/p>\n

NOAA\u2019s Atlantic season outlook will be updated again in early August, just ahead of the hurricane season\u2019s peak, which extends from mid-September through October.<\/p>\n

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An unusally strong El Nino this year is expected to bring a below normal hurricane season to the Atlantic Ocean basin, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1314,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[54,13,42],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1315","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-hurricanes","category-news","category-weather"],"yoast_head":"\nNOAA expects \u2018below normal\u2019 hurricane season, thanks to strong El Ni\u00f1o - Orlando Relocation Report<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/orlandorelocationreport.com\/?p=1315\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"NOAA expects \u2018below normal\u2019 hurricane season, thanks to strong El Ni\u00f1o - 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