{"id":1973,"date":"2026-05-28T13:37:02","date_gmt":"2026-05-28T13:37:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/orlandorelocationreport.com\/?p=1973"},"modified":"2026-05-28T13:37:02","modified_gmt":"2026-05-28T13:37:02","slug":"officials-we-cant-let-our-guard-down-despite-sunny-hurricane-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/orlandorelocationreport.com\/?p=1973","title":{"rendered":"Officials: \u2018We can\u2019t let our guard down\u2019 despite sunny hurricane forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"
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For weeks, weather experts have predicted a \u201cbelow-average\u201d 2026 Atlantic hurricane season beginning Monday, with a total of 13 named storms.<\/p>\n

Read more 2026 Florida Prize in Contemporary Art weaves global cultures and ideas<\/a><\/p>\n

But emergency management officials across Central Florida fear the somewhat sunny forecast may lead residents to develop a sense of complacency \u2014 especially after last season, when not a single tropical storm or hurricane struck the state.<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t care what they say when I look at predictions,\u201d said Carlos Durden, Orange County\u2019s new director of the office of emergency management. \u201cWe are always reviewing plans. We are constantly doing exercises and computer checks. We are reaching out to the community\u2026Because all it takes is one [storm].\u201d<\/p>\n

Also a concern is a new Trump administration policy in which FEMA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, is limiting its spending to only the most urgent, life-saving needs during catastrophic disasters.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ll be told, \u2018Florida, use your own money\u2019\u201d to respond and recover from a disaster, said Dennis Smith, director of the Mark and Marianne Barneby Planning and Development Lab at FSU. \u201cWe\u2019re going to see more state responsibility.\u201d<\/p>\n

On average, a hurricane season \u2014 which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30 \u2014 sees about 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes, three of which are major ones with winds of at least 111 mph.<\/p>\n

But in their annual preseason storm outlook this month, researchers at Colorado State University predicted six hurricanes, two of which will be major. Forecaster AccuWeather also is calling for a slower-than-average hurricane season, as is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in their forecast released last week.<\/p>\n

One of the reasons for the brighter forecasts is the weather bully known as El Ni\u00f1o, which means little boy or Christ child in Spanish. The pattern creates more widespread wind shear and sinking air across the Atlantic basin, which tend to break up developing storms.<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

Early signs also show this isn\u2019t a run-of-the-mill El Ni\u00f1o, with the ocean surface waters in the Pacific forecast to be nearly three degrees warmer than normal. That raises the chances of a so-called Super El Ni\u00f1o this year, meaning fewer tropical storms in the Atlantic on average but more rain and stormy weather during the fall and early winter.<\/p>\n

Regardless, Central Florida residents should prepare as early as possible, according to experts, well before the peak of the hurricane season between mid-August and mid-October.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe always tell people that if you have a system approaching you \u2014 whether it\u2019s a tropical storm or a Cat [Category] 1 \u2014 then you should prepare for a Cat 2,\u201d said Scott Kelly, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Melbourne. \u201cYou should always prepare for one category higher.\u201d<\/p>\n

Mike Bourassa, a professor of meteorology at Florida State University and director of the school\u2019s Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, said he is often frustrated by the public\u2019s misconceptions regarding hurricanes.<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

\u201cMy favorite [misconception] is that the storm will weaken when it makes landfall,\u201d he said during a conference call this month. \u201cBut that\u2019s no longer true. Don\u2019t count on it.\u201d<\/p>\n

For example, Hurricane Helene in September 2024 was a powerful tropical cyclone that made landfall in Florida\u2019s Big Bend and then ripped its way into Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, causing catastrophic damage and several fatalities across the Southeastern United States.<\/p>\n

Also, \u201ca storm that moves parallel to a coast; it can create a very large wave or storm surge,\u201d Bourassa said. \u201cAnd if it\u2019s timed with the tides, it can be very bad.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more Storm coverage increases in the afternoon with high chances for rain<\/a><\/p>\n

Alan Harris, Seminole County\u2019s director of emergency management, said the diminished FEMA support is a consideration in preparing for this year\u2019s hurricane season.<\/p>\n

The agency\u2019s Disaster Relief Fund dropped below $3 billion in April, and it must now limit how it spends its funds.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe president has made the request for [states and local governments] to step up, and that FEMA may not come,\u201d Harris said. \u201cSo we need to be more prepared than ever before.\u201d<\/p>\n

Even so, Florida is in good shape to respond to a disaster, said David Merrick, director of FSU\u2019s Emergency Management and Homeland Security program and Center for Disaster Risk Policy.<\/p>\n

\u201cFlorida has a very strong emergency management capability at the state and local levels,\u201d he said. \u201cBut those reductions in federal money and support are going to have long-term impacts. \u2026 I wouldn\u2019t want to live anywhere in states without experience\u201d in recovering from large-scale natural disasters.<\/p>\n

Harris added that residents should prepare for localized flooding, even if their area is not within a hurricane\u2019s track.<\/p>\n

He pointed to Hurricane Matthew, which skirted up Florida\u2019s east coast along the Atlantic Ocean in October 2016 as a Category 3 hurricane.<\/p>\n

\u201cMatthew didn\u2019t make contact with the state of Florida,\u201d Harris said. \u201cBut it created hundreds of thousands of tons of debris. With the amount of wind and rain, we had power outages\u201d along with flooding.<\/p>\n

Harris encourages residents to begin building their hurricane kits as early as possible.<\/p>\n

He suggested that every time you go to the grocery store, pick up bottled water, non-perishable food, batteries and sanitation items.<\/p>\n

\u201cSlowly, over time \u2014 and by the peak of hurricane season \u2014 you\u2019ll have developed a pretty good hurricane kit,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Bill Litton, emergency management director for Osceola County, agreed.<\/p>\n

\u201cMake sure you have multiple ways to receive alerts,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Litton also had an ominous history lesson for Floridians. The 2004 hurricane season \u2014 the most devastating in Florida\u2019s history, when three strong hurricanes hit Central Florida within six weeks \u2014 also was an El Ni\u00f1o year.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe can\u2019t let our guard down,\u201d he said. \u201cThe public should prepare for an active season.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more As Disney turns: Carousel of Progress getting updates, new decades<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Thanks to a Super El Nino weather pattern, hurricane experts say there may be fewer hurricanes this year. But all it takes is one catastrophic storm, emergency management officials in Central Florida say.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1972,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[54,13,42],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1973","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-hurricanes","category-news","category-weather"],"yoast_head":"\nOfficials: \u2018We can\u2019t let our guard down\u2019 despite sunny hurricane forecast - Orlando Relocation Report<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/orlandorelocationreport.com\/?p=1973\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Officials: \u2018We can\u2019t let our guard down\u2019 despite sunny hurricane forecast - Orlando Relocation Report\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Thanks to a Super El Nino weather pattern, hurricane experts say there may be fewer hurricanes this year. 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