{"id":786,"date":"2026-05-16T12:33:40","date_gmt":"2026-05-16T12:33:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/orlandorelocationreport.com\/?p=786"},"modified":"2026-05-16T12:33:40","modified_gmt":"2026-05-16T12:33:40","slug":"el-nino-is-heating-up-faster-than-expected-heres-what-that-means-for-hurricane-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/orlandorelocationreport.com\/?p=786","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o is heating up faster than expected. Here\u2019s what that means for hurricane season."},"content":{"rendered":"
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WEST PALM BEACH \u2014 El Ni\u00f1o is likely to show up sooner than previously expected, as early as late May, meaning it could have a better chance of hindering hurricanes later in the season,\u00a0experts say.<\/p>\n

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in an update on Thursday that El Ni\u00f1o has an 82% chance of emerging from May to July 2026. The earlier it forms, the more likely it is to have an impact on hurricane season, which officially begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o is a naturally occurring weather cycle that occurs when trade winds over the Pacific weaken, causing warm water to pile up along the Pacific coast of equatorial South America.<\/p>\n

Instead of thunderstorms brewing near Indonesia, they mushroom up in the Central Pacific, setting off a chain reaction of weather effects that are felt globally, and including within the Atlantic hurricane season.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe confidence in the strong El Ni\u00f1o is going up,\u201d said Phil Klotzbach, atmospheric scientist with Colorado State University, who recently spoke at the Governor\u2019s Hurricane Conference in West Palm Beach. Klotzbach said a strong El Ni\u00f1o could emerge as soon as mid to late June.<\/p>\n

A strong El Ni\u00f1o occurs when sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific rise at least 1.5 C above average, making global impact more likely.\u00a0\u201cIt\u2019s already kind of starting to look like certain things are kind of locking in.\u201d<\/p>\n

Strong El Ni\u00f1os tend to topple hurricanes on the other side of the planet, in the Atlantic Basin. \u201cWhen you have thunderstorms, you have winds near the ocean surface that converge into those thunderstorms.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe air goes up in the thunderstorms, then it spreads out aloft, so you end up with upper-level winds out of the west across the Eastern Pacific extending into the Caribbean,\u201d Klotzbach said. \u201cAn El Ni\u00f1o alters the entire tropic circulation \u2014 you tend to get upper level winds out of the west that really shears (hurricanes) apart. It\u2019s a double whammy of too much shear and also sinking motion and dry air,\u201d said Klotzbach.<\/p>\n

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These dynamics occur in the tropical regions of the Caribbean and Atlantic, right where hurricanes are trying to form.<\/p>\n

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Ocean temperatures<\/h4>\n

Hot oceans fuel hurricanes. Though the Pacific is hot this year, the Atlantic is closer to normal.<\/p>\n

\u201cRight now the Atlantic is just a little bit warmer than normal,\u201d Klotzbach said.\u00a0\u201cIt\u2019s not crazy warm. 2023 and 2024 were stupid high. 2025 was somewhat warmer than normal. This year is a little bit above normal.\u201d<\/p>\n

That will affect how El Ni\u00f1o behaves. The outlandishly high Atlantic sea-surface temperatures of 2023 put a kibosh on El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s power.<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

\u201cIn 2023 we had the strong El Ni\u00f1o and a record-warm Atlantic at the same time, so we ended up with a pretty busy season \u2014 20 storms. The Atlantic and the Indian Oceans were so dang hot, the tropical circulation didn\u2019t look very much like El Ni\u00f1o, so the shear was fairly low.\u201d<\/p>\n

The models that were correct in forecasting an active season in 2023, despite a strong El Ni\u00f1o, are this year calling for very strong wind shear, and thus a relatively inactive Atlantic hurricane season.<\/p>\n

NOAA said there\u2019s also a 96% chance that El Ni\u00f1o will last well into winter \u2014 good news for combating Florida\u2019s drought.<\/p>\n

Last month, Klotzbach and his team at Colorado State issued their annual early hurricane season outlook, indicating that the season would be \u201csomewhat below-average\u201d with a\u00a0total of 13 named storms (an average hurricane season sees 14 named storms).<\/p>\n

This week, Klotzbach said that the rapid warming of the Pacific would likely lead his team to putting out \u201ceven lower forecast\u201d in their next update, which will come out June 10.<\/p>\n

Read more Paid family leave would benefit Florida\u2019s workers, advocates say<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El Ni\u00f1o is making vast areas of the Pacific Ocean hot. The phenomenon will cause ripple effects globally \u2014 and affect Florida’s hurricane season. Here’s what you need to know.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":785,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[54,13,42],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-786","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-hurricanes","category-news","category-weather"],"yoast_head":"\nEl Ni\u00f1o is heating up faster than expected. 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