As the dust clears from a busy start to the NHL offseason, the Lightning certainly made more moves than they typically do this time of the year.
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General manager Julien BriseBois was feverishly trying to improve the roster for next season and beyond.
Did he succeed? And what about the moves that weren’t made?
How does John Carlson make the Lightning better?
The Lightning liked the idea of adding Zach Werenski, the reigning Norris Trophy winner, but in some ways John Carlson fits the defensive corps’ needs better.
His right-handed shot balances out the defensemen, giving them three right-shot D to the five left-shot ones among the top eight. And if the Lightning learned anything from Darren Raddysh’s ascension last season, it’s that giving Nikita Kucherov a defenseman at the point with a hard right-hand one-timer, especially on the power play, is a valuable weapon.
Carlson, 36, doesn’t have Raddysh’s shot velocity, but he still has a hard shot and an uncanny ability to get those attempts on net. It’s a small sample size, but he was able to get 10 of 15 power-play attempts on net in his 16 games in Anaheim.
BriseBois was impressed with Carlson’s ability to change scenery after playing his entire career with one team in Washington and adjusting well to a new club in the postseason.
The Lightning need their top players to perform in the playoffs, and Carlson adds another proven postseason performer. He’s made the playoffs in 15 of his 17 seasons, won a Stanley Cup with the Capitals in 2018 and averaged 24:31 a game in the postseason over his career.
Ultimately, Carlson makes the smart play to get the puck out of the defensive zone, can get the puck to scorers in good spots — he did it for years with Alex Ovechkin — and can also jump in the rush. He seems to be the perfect match for J.J. Moser, a superb defensive-minded skater who could be able to play on the left side with Carlson on the right.
Where does this leave Victor Hedman?
There’s no easy answer to that. The addition of Carlson makes you wonder, even if Victor Hedman returns to his old form, are there enough minutes to go around to make everyone happy?
Hedman has an entire offseason to get his body and mind right, and the last time we heard from him, he was committed to returning in 2026-27. He is under contract for three more seasons at an $8 million average annual value.
We know Hedman is not one to give up. He’s proud and hard-working. He’ll be 36 in December, so there’s still some mileage on those tires.
But if Carlson is slotted with Moser, and the second pairing of Ryan McDonagh and Erik Cernak and third pairing of Charle-Edouard D’Astous and Emil Lilleberg remain, it leaves Hedman and Max Crozier as the two remaining D-men.
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The way the Lightning look at it, competition is a good thing, and despite being a blue-line anchor for 17 years, Hedman might have to fight for ice time like he did early in his NHL career.
One thing to keep in mind: Training camp is shorter this season, there are fewer preseason games, and the regular season starts earlier, so Hedman’s offseason preparation is even more important because he won’t be able to ease his way into the season, especially if he’s competing for minutes or a roster spot.
What do we make of the other new guys?
If you think BriseBois was satisfied with last season’s team after a fourth straight first-round exit, you’d be wrong. And we see the fallout of his findings in the moves he made outside of the Carlson signing.
One of the best things that came out of last season was the emergence of a second matchup line with Yanni Gourde, Zemgus Girgensons and Pontus Holmberg. When the Lightning went on their 20-1-1 run, that line frustrated and shut down opposing teams’ top stars night in and night out. But the loss of Holmberg to injury hurt the momentum that line built. Nick Paul wasn’t a fit there, and you have to wonder what would have happened if Holmberg was healthy.
Both Ilya Mikheyev and Jeffrey Viel could play in the bottom nine, but they are strong fits for the Gourde line if the Lightning lose a piece to injury.
Mikheyev, 31, is Anthony Cirelli light. He’s a superb forechecker who hounds the puck. He’s a fast skater, so matching him up with Dominic James on the fourth line would bring speed. And while Viel, 29, fits more of a fourth-line role, he put himself on Anaheim’s matchup role in the playoffs that helped shut down Connor McDavid in the Ducks’ first-round series win over Edmonton. You love the toughness, but he’s got to be able to do more than fight, and Viel’s shown he can.
The Lightning weren’t looking to replace backup goaltender Jonas Johansson, but they saw a trade with Toronto for Dennis Hildeby, 24, as an upgrade. It’s a small sample size, but his surface and underlying numbers are better than Johansson’s. He’s cheaper and six years younger. In each of the last two seasons, Johansson had late-season ailments that forced him from playing, and it was clear Brandon Halverson wasn’t someone the Lightning had confidence in to get points in a pinch.
Should we worry about Nikita Kucherov’s future here?
Not yet. Let’s take BriseBois at his word when he said that extension negotiations with Kucherov took a backseat because there were other urgent matters to attend to in free agency and on the trade market. This has been a crazy offseason.
There could be some concern about BriseBois’ description of the situation, saying that the Lightning want Kucherov to stay and he wants to remain in Tampa, if only because it sounds so much like the Steven Stamkos situation three summers ago. And how did that one end? The former Lightning captain is now in Nashville.
BriseBois loves Kucherov and sees him as the cornerstone of sustaining the Lightning’s success. In comparison, he saw Stamkos’ 5-on-5 game decline, and he needed to address even-strength and defensive flaws to the roster. For the most part, BriseBois likes the team the Lightning had this past season. And Kucherov just won his second Hart Memorial Trophy and led the league in points per game. He hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down as he just turned 33.
Give it at least until the end of the month before starting to worry. If the team enters training camp and Kucherov still isn’t extended, it’s an issue. That means BriseBois and Kucherov’s agent, Dan Milstein, are far enough apart to go into the season with this looming. The last time Kucherov was eligible for an extension in 2018, he signed quickly, saying, “Why wait?”
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