The National Hurricane Center on Tuesday kept the odds high that an Atlantic system could develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm this week.
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If it were to spin up into a named system, it could become Tropical Storm Cristobal.
As of the NHC’s 2 p.m. tropical outlook, the tropical wave with disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity was located about 550 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands in the central tropical Atlantic.
“Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter half of this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic,” forecasters said.
The NHC gave the system a 40% chance to develop in the next two days and 70% chance in the next seven.
8 AM EDT: We are monitoring several areas in the Atlantic basin for tropical development. There is a high (70%) chance of development associated with a tropical wave in the central basin (red area). Elsewhere, a short-lived system may spin up over the next day or so in the… pic.twitter.com/NAI3IQxXjJ
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 11, 2026
Earlier Tuesday, the NHC dropped to 0% the chances a tropical wave that was farther west could develop. It was closing within 500 miles of the Caribbean, though, and was still forecast to bring locally heavy rain and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles in the next couple of days.
Forecasters did keep tracking another system, though, in the central subtropical Atlantic, located about 750 miles east-northeast of Bermuda and moving away from the U.S. It had become more concentrated since Monday.
“Some development of this system is possible during the next day or so while it moves eastward at around 20 mph across the central subtropical Atlantic,” forecasters said. “The system is forecast to reach cooler waters later this week, ending its chances of formation by Thursday.”
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The NHC gave it a 20% chance to develop in the next two to seven days.
So far the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30, has been slow with only two named systems – tropical storms Arthur and Bertha.
After Cristobal, the next names on the list are Dolly and Edouard.
JUST IN: NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook remains ‘below normal,’ in August update
*U.S. residents need to remain prepared*
Details: https://t.co/kxshxyagwC#HurricaneOutlook @NWS @NWSCPC pic.twitter.com/3N9s8hrz8e
— NOAA (@NOAA) August 6, 2026
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration last week updated its seasonal forecast stating it expects between seven and 13 named storms this year. Of those, two to six would become hurricanes. It also predicted that there might not be any major hurricanes this year, or at most two.
Already 2026 was forecast to have lower-than-average storm generation, and that has been reduced even further with the latest forecasts from the NOAA and other weather groups.
An average year would see 14 named storms and seven hurricanes, with three of those growing to Category 3 strength or higher.
The height of hurricane season, though, has yet to begin, running between mid-August and mid-October.
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