TALLAHASSEE — More Florida Republicans opted to vote early in person than by mail in this year’s primary election, a sharp turnabout from the last open governor’s race, results posted Monday by the state Division of Elections show.
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As of Monday, about 422,000 Republicans voted by mail, compared to just over 621,000 in 2018, the state reported. That was the last midyear election where state voters chose a new governor, leading to two hotly contested Democratic and Republican primaries.
By contrast, the number of Republicans voting in person skyrocketed this year, from nearly 300,000 in 2018 to almost 450,000, state records show.
“That is a huge tradeoff among Republicans from voting by mail to early voting in person,” said Michael McDonald, a political science professor at the University of Florida whose research focuses on elections and methodology.
And it is also understandable, given that President Donald Trump has consistently cast doubts and railed against voting by mail since before he lost the 2020 election to President Joe Biden.
“Clearly, Republicans are listening to him,” McDonald said. “And he’s given the green light to voting early.”
But what it means for overall voter turnout is anyone’s guess, McDonald said.
Floridians head to the polls today to vote in a slew of statewide and local elections.
Nearly 2 million people have already voted early or by mail in the primary election as of noon Monday, with Republicans outnumbering Democrats 870,000 to about 806,000, or by about 7%. That number will likely change as thousands of absentee ballots continue to be counted through Tuesday, McDonald said.
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Driving Republican interest is the dramatic contest between the four top candidates in the GOP primary for governor — U.S. Congressman Byron Donalds, Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, former House Speaker Paul Renner, and businessman James Fishback.
Democrats don’t have the same competitive, high-stakes race for governor, with former Republican Congressman David Jolly going into tomorrow’s election with a commanding lead.
As a result, Democratic voting habits seem to follow previous midterm primary elections, McDonald said. They cast 564,000 mail ballots in 2018, compared to 501,069 as of Monday with 341,000 requested ballots still outstanding.
Meanwihle, only 305,000 Democrats voted early in person this year compared to 318,000 in 2018.
Part of the shift is due to the change in state election laws since 2021, said Matt Isbell, a political consultant who specializes in mapping election results.
Gov. Ron DeSantis signed a law that year that requires people to request a mail ballot for every election cycle, instead of every other election cycle.
Seeing fewer people voting by mail could result in more people showing up on the day of the election, Isbell said. “So turnout could be higher. Or it could be lower. We won’t know until the polls close at 7 pm.”
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