The National Hurricane Center on Monday increased the odds a system that formed in the Gulf could develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.
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As of the NHC’s 2 a.m. tropical outlook, a surface trough of low pressure had formed along the coast of Mexico in the southwestern Gulf.
“Although environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive, gradual development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form by the second half of this week while it initially drifts eastward before turning northward,” forecasters said.
The NHC gave it a 10% chance to develop in the next two days, and increased to 50% the chance it could develop in the next seven days. That’s up from 40% forecast late Sunday. The NHC began tracking it Saturday night.
If it were to spin up into a named system, it could become Tropical Storm Isaias.
8 am EDT Oct 4 – A broad area of low pressure could form in a few days over the southwestern Gulf of America. Some slow development is possible while it drifts northward over the southwestern Gulf. For updates, visit https://t.co/GrztW6mQJV pic.twitter.com/SbgMAEoTES
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) October 4, 2026
The hurricane season has seen the formation of tropical storms Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo and Hanna.
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None has developed into a hurricane in the Atlantic this year, though, by Oct. 1 — a first since satellite tracking began in 1966.
Hurricane season began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30, but the height of hurricane season runs from mid-August through mid-October.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in August had updated its seasonal forecast to expect between seven and 13 named storms this year. Of those, two to six would become hurricanes. It also predicted that there might not be any major hurricanes this year, or at most two.
Already, 2026 was forecast to have lower-than-average storm generation, and that has been reduced even further with the latest forecasts from the NOAA and other weather groups.
An average year would see 14 named storms and seven hurricanes, with three of those growing to Category 3 strength or higher.
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