Seminole County would lose more than $188 million in revenues through 2029 if voters approve a property tax cut on the ballot in November, commissioners said Tuesday.
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That would likely mean future cuts in public safety, emergency services, maintenance of roads, and funding for parks and leisure programs.
“We have a lot of things to contemplate and consider,” said Commission Chair Andria Herr at a county budget workshop.
“There will be factions with regard to this potential law that are stating it as the best thing since sliced bread, and those that are stating it as the sky is falling,” she said. “And neither of those are probably true … Somewhere in the middle is the truth.”
Seminole officials are beginning to prepare the county’s overall $1.2 billion budget, including the $443 million general fund, for the 2026-27 fiscal year which starts Oct. 1. Although the tax cut would not affect the upcoming fiscal plan until October 2027, Seminole officials said it’s important to plan now.
If approved by 60% of Florida voters, the homestead exemption on an owner’s primary home would go up to the first $150,000 on the property’s assessed value starting January 1. The exemption would then rise to $250,000 in 2028.
Homeowners would still be levied school taxes, so those revenues would not be impacted.
The average Seminole homeowner would save about $1,500 in the unincorporated areas.
As Seminole commissioners — all Republicans — voiced concerns over the loss in revenue, Commissioner Jay Zembower pointed out that recent referendums to increase homestead exemptions have failed.
“I would remind everyone that these types of initiatives were on the ballot in 2018 and 2022,” he said, and “were not approved by the citizens of this state. This is not a novel idea.”
But Herr said this one has strong support from state legislators and Gov. Ron DeSantis.
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“The public relations campaign with this is much different than in the past,” she said. “We need to be cognizant of that and prepare for the future.”
Oscar Anderson of The Southern Group, Seminole’s state lobbying firm, said recent polling shows 70% of residents supporting the referendum. But that support could drop after residents see the potential loss in services.
Property Appraiser David Johnson said Florida counties could see an increase in demand for houses, which in turn would lead to a hike in rental prices, if the referendum is approved.
But Commissioner Lee Constantine said the loss in services would affect residents’ “quality of life,” leading to a drop in home values.
“We’re cutting taxes. There is less money. Services will be affected. And property values will, in effect, go down,” he said, and also make it less affordable for renters.
Herr added that residents in Seminole do not want more growth with increased traffic congestion.
“It seems to me that that is the last thing we need,” Herr said regarding more houses. “Let’s just call that like it is.”
Johnson also blasted a state online “calculator” that allows a Florida homeowner to see how much they would save if the property tax exemptions rise to $250,000, which he said did not take into account that school funding was protected from the tax proposal at the last minute.
“It talks about the removal of school taxes,” he said. “And that’s wrong.”
Johnson said his office has called the governor’s office, but has not received a response and the calculator is still online.
County officials also said they expect several court challenges to the referendum before it is placed on the ballot — including its name of “Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes,” which they called deceptive.
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