The National Hurricane Center on Monday increase its forecast chances a system could move into the Gulf and develop into the season’s first tropical depression or storm.
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As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook, the trough of low pressure was inland over northeastern Mexico producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
“Development is not expected during the next day or so while the trough remains inland and drifts generally northward over northeastern Mexico and southern Texas,” forecasters said. “The system is then forecast to move northeastward and could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, where environmental conditions may support some development around midweek.”
Whether or not it forms into a tropical cyclone, the NHC warned that flash flooding and gusty winds were possible across portions of eastern and southern Texas and Louisiana this week.
The NHC gives it a 20% chance to develop in the next two days and 30% in the next seven.
The next update is at 2 p.m. with the NHC making updates every six hours at 2 a.m., 8 a.m., 2 p.m. and 8 p.m. for its tropical outlook report.
This is the first potential tropical system being tracked by the NHC in the Atlantic basin since the start of hurricane season.
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The eastern Pacific has already been busy with three tropical storms, but so far the Atlantic basin has been quiet.
As the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season begins, NHC Director Dr. Michael Brennan shares an important message about hurricane preparedness.
Learn more at https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb and https://t.co/smDd2LqFsl pic.twitter.com/SbmmQG8Zni
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) June 1, 2026
Hurricane season officially began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. The height of hurricane season runs from mid-August into October.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects this season to be below normal with the official forecast released in late May calling for 8-14 named storms, of which 3-6 would become hurricanes. Of those, 1-3 would become major hurricanes reaching Category 3 status or above.
An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
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