Not far from the gaming floor at South Florida’s largest casino, Jay Collins tried to improve his long-shot odds of winning the Republican nomination for governor. By attacking frontrunner Byron Donalds, Collins hopes to stall his opponent’s momentum with just two weeks to go before primary voting begins.
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“There are people right now trying to sell Florida a very familiar product. They’re telling you that Byron Donalds is the safe choice, the acceptable choice, the electable choice,” Collins said. “I’m telling you plainly: Byron Donalds is not ready for the fight ahead.”
Collins’ gamble may not pay off.
Donalds, who has been running longer than Collins or candidate Paul Renner, is far ahead in public opinion polls and campaign money. And he has the support of President Donald Trump, whose blessing is often highly influential with Republican primary voters.
Senior party leaders see Donalds as the inevitable nominee. “I look at the numbers, and I see that there’s only one viable candidate for governor,” state Republican Chair Evan Power said in a brief interview Saturday. U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., told hundreds of Republicans gathered at a state party conference that Donalds “is going to be a great governor.”
And Collins has precious little time to change the trajectory of the race. Elections officials send out the first wave of vote-by-mail ballots from July 9-15. All counties offer early voting starting Aug. 8. The last day of voting, primary day, is Aug. 18, less than eight weeks away.
Collins said it isn’t too late. “These races start to pivot here in the next couple of weeks. There’s plenty of time, plenty of hope, and the people’s voice and the people’s vote matters,” he told reporters after his speech.
Michele Merrell, the elected state Republican committeewoman for Broward County, said most activists who are tuned in to the governor’s race are “leaning toward” Donalds.
But, she said, the race isn’t over yet. “I don’t think you can discount anything until we go to the (polls) in August,” praising Collins, Donalds and Renner as “tremendous candidates,” each of whom “has a very unique perspective and a very unique skill set.”
Although political insiders have been consumed with the contest for months, Susan MacManus, professor emeritus of political science at the University of South Florida, said many voters aren’t yet paying attention and won’t until after Independence Day weekend.
“The public will just start tuning in and (Collins is) getting ready to spend big money on ads, so we’ll see whether that makes a difference. Up to this point … there hasn’t been a lot of focus on (the race), so the time is right if he’s got big money,” MacManus said.
MacManus, who attended the event and watched all the speeches, said the audience reaction was notable. “The pinpoint silence was when Byron Donalds spoke. The other two candidates, people were talking through” their speeches.
Mery Lopez-Palma, a Republican activist running for state representative in Broward District 102, said Donalds “has momentum,” but the primary outcome is uncertain. “God is the only one that knows, and I think if they run their race with God up front and they run hard, I think it’s up for anybody to grab.”
Others at the Republican Party of Florida’s “Sunshine State Showdown” on Saturday at the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Hollywood were looking toward November, expecting Donalds to face Democrat David Jolly.
For his part, Donalds didn’t give any attention during his speech to Collins or Renner. When Donalds brought up, and criticized, another candidate, it was Jolly.
Donalds depicted Jolly as a wolf in sheep’s clothing. “He’s going to campaign in the most boring way possible,” Donalds said of Jolly, who will seem as if he’s “being nice and trying to seem normal.” It’s all a ruse, Donalds warned. If elected “they will be very radical.”
The last major speaker of the day, Donalds took to the stage with a video highlights reel that included a clip of the late Charlie Kirk endorsing Donalds. The conservative activist was assassinated last year. With the primary drawing close, Donalds said he felt the time was right to share the clip.
Renner focused his speech almost entirely on policy, advocating conservative approaches and promising policies that would continue the culture wars that marked a major part of Gov. Ron DeSantis’ time in office.
Renner pledged to “push back against climate extremists” and also protect the state’s water supply. “We will protect our agriculture sector because you know what? The first environmentalist wasn’t a purple-haired Antifa protester, it was someone called a farmer or rancher who understands the importance of stewarding the land.”
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Republicans have controlled state government for decades, and have passed the laws governing the way the state’s elections are run. But Renner said he wants more. “We will pass legislation in Florida that makes Florida the gold standard for election integrity.”
DeSantis appointed Collins, then a state senator, as the state’s lieutenant governor, to fill a vacancy. Donalds is a congressman and former member of the state House of Representatives. Renner was speaker of the state House of Representatives during the first half of DeSantis’ second term.
All three praised DeSantis, who hasn’t endorsed a successor.
Donalds said DeSantis “has done a tremendous job leading our state.” Collins described himself as “the continuity pick in the government for Gov. DeSantis.” Renner told voters they “want someone like President Trump and Gov. DeSantis who runs to the fight and doesn’t wait for the fight to come to him.”
Collins and Renner had hoped for a different kind of showdown at the state Republican gathering: a debate among gubernatorial candidates. But Donalds isn’t debating, frustrating his opponents and some of their supporters. Frontrunners often decline to debate, not wanting to provide a forum that gives more attention to their opponents or risk making an attention-grabbing blunder that ricochets around social media.
Collins said he felt compelled to warn party activists that Donalds wouldn’t be a good candidate against Jolly.
“I’m not saying this because I enjoy attacking another Republican. Believe me, I do not. I’m saying it because I refuse to let Florida sleepwalk into a general election nightmare we are not prepared for. Winning matters, losing sucks. We have too much to lose, friends,” Collins said.
Also hoping for a showdown was candidate James Fishback, who wasn’t there.
He was originally invited to speak, but after strong pushback, Power revoked the invitation. Power, in a written statement, criticized Fishback’s “antisemitic and racist attacks on members of our party.”
Fishback, at a counter-rally at the Westin Fort Lauderdale hotel, said he isn’t antisemitic, called Donalds a “coward” for not debating, and declared that “America was founded as a Christian nation.” The campaign posted a video of the rally online.
He said he was disinvited to the state party gathering because, “They say we are a threat. And we absolutely are. Mark my words: I will burn down the Republican establishment as it stands.” Like many of his comments, his audience responded with chants of “USA, USA.”
At the Showdown event, James Uthmeier, appointed by DeSantis to fill the vacant job of attorney general and running for election to the office this year, emphasized conservative priorities.
Uthmeier said he wants Florida to use state charges to go after anyone who was pardoned and released from federal prison during the final days of former President Joe Biden’s term, and has already done so in one case. “We’re not going to stop until every one of them is behind bars.”
He also pledged to push for impeachment of state judges he sees as displaying poor judgment when it comes to dealing with violent criminals. He said the “rogue judges” need to be “held accountable.”
U.S. Rep. Kat Cammack, who represents a sprawling district that runs the Gulf of Mexico to the Georgia border and is anchored by Gainesville, challenged party activists to avoid internecine battles. “We have to fight back by winning the hearts and minds, and it doesn’t happen by attacking each other on social media.”
Posting a message on social media might feel immediately satisfying, Cammack said, but registering people as Republicans or convincing them to support a candidate requires in-person communication.
“It doesn’t happen on X, it doesn’t happen on Instagram, and it doesn’t happen on Facebook. Sure, it’s important to get that message out. But we live in a time right now where people are hungry for authenticity. They’re hungry for something real. They’re hungry for sincerity, and there’s nothing more authentic and real than someone knocking on your door,” she said.
Cammack sought to motivate activists by the specter of a Democratic-controlled U.S. House, which she predicted would impeach Trump and require Trump cabinet members to appear before congressional committees conducting oversight of their activities.
“They are deranged,” she said of the Democrats. “That is what we have to fight.”
Anthony Man can be reached at [email protected] and can be found @browardpolitics on Bluesky, Threads, Facebook and Mastodon.
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