With the peak of hurricane season still weeks away, two well-regarded forecasts are sticking to their predictions that the Atlantic Ocean will see fewer tropical storms this year than average — thanks to an intensifying El Niño phenomenon nearly half a world away.
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Weather experts with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday forecast between seven and 13 named storms this season, which runs through Nov. 30. Of those, between two and six will develop into hurricanes. That’s even more of a reduction from the agency’s report in May that predicted between eight and 14 storms.
The NOAA report comes a day after forecasters with Colorado State University also predicted a calmer-than-average season. Their prediction of nine tropical storms this season, of which four will become hurricanes, is the same as CSU forecast last month.
An average hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major ones.
The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season — or when most tropical storms develop — starts in early September and lasts through mid October.
So forecasters cautioned residents to prepare for a busy hurricane season regardless of the forecasts, which are based on statistical data and models this early in the hurricane season.
“Everyone should realize that it is impossible to precisely predict this season’s hurricane activity in early August,” according to the CSU report. “As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season.”
So far this hurricane season, there have been only two named storms — tropical storms Arthur in mid-June, and Bertha in mid-July. An average season would see three named tropical storms by Aug. 3 and one hurricane by Aug. 11.
Although there have been fewer storms than normal to date, “there’s nothing extremely abnormal this season,” said Eric Blake, a senior hurricane specialist with the National Hurricane Center in Miami. “August is kind of a transition month, where you really see a big difference between the first day and the last day of August. If this was Aug. 25 with only two named storms, then it definitely it would be very abnormal.”
During an El Niño year, the waters in the central and eastern Pacific near the equator become warmer than normal, increasing the chances for more powerful storms in that region of the globe.
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But in the Atlantic basin, it leads to sinking air and higher pressure systems forming, along with stronger upper level wind shear. Wind shear tends to rip apart or hinder development of a storm.
“And this El Niño continues to get stronger every month,” said Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s National Weather Service.
According to the NOAA forecast, there is a 75% probability of a below normal hurricane season, a 20% chance of a near normal one and 5% chance of above normal. It also predicts between zero and two major hurricanes developing with winds greater than 110 mph.
The CSU forecast shows a 16% probability of a major hurricane hitting anywhere along the continental coastline of the United States. During a normal hurricane season, that probability is 43%.
The NOAA and CSU forecasts are among several well-regarded reports issued during hurricane seasons that are closely studied by emergency management officials, weather forecasters and property insurance companies.
But weather experts warn that even a single tropical storm can cause massive destruction.
One significantly below-average year for Atlantic storms was 1992, when only 10 storms formed. But the first one, Hurricane Andrew in late August, remains the most destructive storm ever to hit Florida with 65 deaths and more than $27 billion in damages.
This year, Tropical Storm Arthur brought record rainfall to areas of Louisiana and generated flash flooding and tornadoes along the Gulf coast. It caused four fatalities and just over $1 billion in damages.
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