The National Hurricane Center on Thursday continued to track a system approaching Florida with potential to become the season’s next tropical depression or storm.
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In its 8 a.m. tropical outlook, the NHC said that an area of low pressure is expected to form during the weekend over the northeastern Gulf.
“Some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves slowly northeastward over the northeastern Gulf and near the coast of the southeastern United States early next week,” forecasters said.
The NHC, which began tracking the system on Wednesday, continues to give it a 20% chance to develop in the next seven days.
8:00 AM EDT Wed. July 15th. An area of low pressure is expected to form in the northeastern Gulf this weekend, and now has a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone after that time as it moves northeastward along and off the southeastern US coast.
Latest information at… pic.twitter.com/VmzUbKxHZg
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) July 15, 2026
The National Weather Service in Melbourne says the a trough will form over the weekend across the Florida peninsula with a surface high pushing south of Central Florida bringing west to southwest wind and more moisture brought in from the Gulf.
“Locally, regardless of tropical development or not, moisture will increase across east central Florida thanks to the surface low, with strengthening south to southwest winds advecting moisture northward towards the area,” the NWS stated in its forecaster’s discussion. “Rain and storm chances have continued to trend upward, generally ranging between 40-70% through this weekend and into the middle of next week.”
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The NHC also continued tracking a tropical wave in the eastern tropical Atlantic southeast of the Cape Verde Islands with disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
“Some slow development is possible during the next day or two while the system moves generally west-northwestward at about 10 mph,” forecasters said. “By this weekend, the system is forecast to move into a less conducive environment, and further development is not expected.”
The NHC gave it just a 10% chance to develop in the next two to seven days.
The 2026 hurricane season so far has had just one named system, the short-lived Tropical Storm Arthur that developed in the Gulf and brought floods to Texas and Louisiana in June.
The next names on the hurricane season list are Bertha and Cristobal.
The season officially began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. The height of hurricane season runs from mid-August into October.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects this season to be below normal with the official forecast released in late May calling for 8-14 named storms, of which 3-6 would become hurricanes. Of those, 1-3 would become major hurricanes reaching Category 3 status or above.
An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
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