With the Rays on Friday getting the formality of clinching an American League playoff spot, and the frolicking fun of celebrating it, out of the way — returning to the postseason for the first time in three years following a five-year run of qualifying — they will be singularly focused on their most important goal:
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Winning the AL East and earning the first-round playoff bye that comes with it.
“We’re not done by any means,” Junior Caminero, whose walk-off homer set off the wet-and-wild celebration, said via team interpreter Kevin Vera. “The next objective is just win the division.”
To do so, the Rays are going to have to hold off the Yankees — they started play Saturday three games up with 15 remaining — as they navigate a challenging remaining schedule that includes a 10-game season-ending gauntlet with series vs. Boston and at New York (four games in three days) and Philadelphia.
Baseball operations president Erik Neander has made a point of pointing out that no media or industry insiders gave the Rays a chance to win much of anything based on their returning roster and offseason acquisitions, but he shared his confidence and vision in a meeting prior to the season opener in St. Louis and players and staff all bought in, confident they’d be better than expected.
“We kind of laid out some goals for ourselves at the beginning of camp, and making the postseason was (step) No. 1 as far as the regular season is concerned,” veteran starter Drew Rasmussen said.
“We thought we were going to be really competitive in the AL East this year, and that is step No. 2. Because the two teams chasing us are on our schedule in the next two weeks, I think that keeps us focused. I think that keeps us moving in the right direction. I think we are fortunate that the division’s so competitive this year we don’t have the opportunity to relax and be satisfied with where we’re at. We’ve got to stay focused.
“We want to win the AL East. That’s what it is,” Rasmussen continued. “So we’ve got to take care of business every single day, even well beyond (clinching) a postseason spot.”
Here’s a look at what that will mean and why it matters.
The banners
This is the 10th time in 19 seasons since the launch of the Rays era in 2008 that the team has made the postseason. Only three teams will have made it more in that span: the Dodgers (seeking their 16th), Yankees (14th) and Braves (11th). The Brewers also are making their 10th trip, and the Astros are aiming to do so.
This would be Tampa Bay’s fifth AL East title since 2008, when they made an improbable rise from worst to first. The Rays also won the division in 2010, 2020 and 2021. During that span, only the Yankees have done so more often (six).
The bye
Any debate over the advantages and disadvantages of having a bye for the first round of the playoffs has to acknowledge this absolute fact:
It guarantees you play in the Division Series.
And that’s kinda important.
Given the general randomness of the baseball playoffs, a best-of-three series, even with all the games at the higher-seeded team’s home, can be a trap. (In the four years of this format, the road team has won 10 of the 16 series.)
Just look back to the Rays’ most recent playoff appearance in 2023.
They had won 99 games (two shy of the AL East title) and hosted a 90-win Texas team that had just lost out on the AL West title with a crushing 1-0 Game 162 loss at Seattle and had to fly across the country. Yet Tampa Bay got swept, albeit by the eventual World Series champs. (The Rays also were swept in the 2022 Wild Card Series at Cleveland.)
The primary benefit of earning the bye as one of the top two division winners is getting five days off to set up your pitching rotation for the best-of-five Division Series, refreshing your bullpen and having a few days for players to get over minor injuries, aches and pains. Plus, as the top two seeds, those teams get Games 1, 2 and 5 at home.
But there is plenty of discussion about rest vs. rust.
In the four years since Major League Baseball added the third wild card and adopted the current playoff format, teams have wrestled with how best to deal with their longest stretch of the season without playing, a day more than the All-Star break.
Some keep it light, taking a day or two totally off and doing basic workouts. Others opt for simulated or intrasquad games to try to maintain a level of intensity and competitiveness.
How has it worked out?
Under this format, seven of the 16 higher-seeded teams with a bye were upset in the Division Series.
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Of the nine that did advance, four were eliminated in the Championship Series. Of the five that got to the World Series, three won.
The bracket
If the Rays win the East, they will have the best record and be the top-seeded AL team.
Their “reward” will be a Division Series matchup against the second- or third-best team, facing the winner of the Red Sox-Yankees Wild Card Series in an all-AL East combat in what essentially is the quarterfinal round.
With the changes MLB has made to the playoff format, in part to incentivize winning until the end of the regular season, the top two division winners get the first-round byes. The other division winner is seeded third and plays the third wild card (the No. 6 seed), with the other two wild-card teams (Nos. 4 and 5) squaring off.
The issue is that there are no adjustments to re-seed after first-round results or strictly by record.
So, in a year like this, where two and possibly — if the Blue Jays or Orioles get hot — three wild cards come from the same division, there can be a distinct difference in degree of difficulty depending on your side of the bracket.
Even more so if the No. 6 seed upsets the No. 3 in the first round.
That would mean, based on the standings going into play Saturday, that the second-seeded White Sox (75-72) would play the Guardians (75-73) in one Division Series, while the top-seeded Rays (88-59) would battle either the Yankees (85-62) or Red Sox (80-68).
If the Rays falter and lose out on the division they’ve led for 117 days, they would have an even more rugged route, falling to the No. 4 (or 5) seed and having to face off with both the Red Sox and Yankees just to get to the AL Championship Series — and without the benefit of home-dome advantage throughout.
There is one scheduling edge for all the AL teams this year — an additional day off between Games 1 and 2 of the Division Series. Typically, a best-of-five series is scheduled over seven days — two games at the top seed, travel day, two games at the lower seed, travel day, decisive game at the top seed.
But after having all four series open on Saturday, Oct. 3, MLB wants to have daily games (and minimize conflict with NFL games on Sunday, Oct. 4), so this is the AL’s year to have the extra day, with Game 2 on Monday, Oct. 5. That provides additional rest for relievers who work in the opener and, more intriguing, the potential for a team to bring back its Game 1 starter for Game 4.
The byproducts
Besides winning the AL East, what else matters over the next two weeks?
There are some other important things for the Rays to check off, most importantly the season series with the Red Sox and Yankees, which is used to break postseason-related ties rather than the old Game 163 concept.
The Rays and Red Sox are 5-5 so far, with three games at the Trop next weekend. The Rays lead the Yankees 6-3, so they need to win one of the four potentially critical games they’ll play Sept. 22-24 (including a day-night doubleheader the first day to make up a May 23 rainout).
Given the gap between the top East teams and the other AL playoff contenders, the Rays over the next few days will be officially positioned to have a bye and the top AL seed if they hang on to win the division.
If you are really optimistic, there is the matter of homefield advantage for the World Series, which is determined by best regular-season record.
Postseason schedule
Wild Card Series (best-of-3)
AL/NL: Sept. 29-Oct. 1, at higher-seeded team
Division Series (best-of-5)
AL: Oct. 3, 5 at higher seed, Oct. 7-8 at lower, Oct. 10 at higher
NL: Oct. 3-4 at higher seed, Oct. 6-7 at lower, Oct. 9 at higher
League Championship Series (best-of-7)
AL: Oct. 12-13 at higher seed, Oct. 15-16-17 at lower, Oct. 19-20 at higher
NL: Oct. 11-12 at higher seed, Oct. 14-15-16 at lower, Oct. 18-19 at higher
World Series (best-of-7)
AL/NL: Oct. 23-24 at better record, Oct. 26-27-28 at lesser, Oct. 30-31 at better
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Rays’ postseason history
2008
Finish: 97-65, East champ
ALDS: Beat White Sox 3-1
ALCS: Beat Red Sox 4-3
WS: Lost to Phillies 4-1
2010
Finish: 96-66, East champ
ALDS: Lost to Rangers, 3-2
2011
Finish: 91-71, wild card
ALDS: Lost to Rangers, 3-1
2013
Finish: 92-71, wild card*
AL WC game: Beat Indians
ALDS: Lost to Red Sox 3-1
*Beat Texas in Game 163
2019
Finish: 96-66, wild card
AL WC game: Beat A’s
ALDS: Lost to Astros 3-2
2020
Finish: 40-20, East champ
ALWCS: Beat Blue Jays 2-0
ALDS: Beat Yankees 3-2
ALCS: Beat Astros 4-3
WS: Lost to Dodgers 4-2
2021
Finish: 100-62, East champ
ALDS: Lost to Red Sox 3-1
2022
Finish: 86-76, wild card
ALWCS: Lost to Guardians 2-0
2023
Finish: 99-63, wild card
ALWS: Lost to Rangers 2-0