The National Hurricane Center on Sunday continued to forecast an area of low pressure moving over Mexico has a low chance to develop when it moves into the Gulf next week.
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As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook, the broad area of low pressure was inland over eastern Mexico producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
“Development is not expected during the next day or so while the low remains inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas during the
next day or so,” forecasters said. “The system could then re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America around midweek while interacting with a frontal boundary, but conditions there are expected to be only marginally conducive for development.”
The NHC gives it a 20% chance to develop in the next seven days.
The next update is at 2 p.m. with the NHC making updates every six hours at 2 a.m., 8 a.m., 2 p.m. and 8 p.m. for its tropical outlook report.
This is the first potential tropical system being tracked by the NHC in the Atlantic basin since the start of hurricane season.
The eastern Pacific has already been busy with three tropical storms, but so far the Atlantic basin has been quiet.
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As the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season begins, NHC Director Dr. Michael Brennan shares an important message about hurricane preparedness.
Learn more at https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb and https://t.co/smDd2LqFsl pic.twitter.com/SbmmQG8Zni
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) June 1, 2026
Hurricane season officially began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. The height of hurricane season runs from mid-August into October.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects this season to be below normal with the official forecast released in late May calling for 8-14 named storms, of which 3-6 would become hurricanes. Of those, 1-3 would become major hurricanes reaching Category 3 status or above.
An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
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