A new electoral map diluting the power of Hispanic voters has imperiled five-term Democratic U.S. Rep. Darren Soto, who now takes on Trump-aligned former Department of Defense staffer Dan Green in a district redrawn to include thousands of Republican voters.
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Congressional District 9 had leaned Democratic for years despite Soto being a repeated target for the national GOP. But the contentious mid-decade redistricting initiated by Gov. Ron DeSantis and approved by the Republican-controlled Legislature has stretched the Central Florida district south and east, to include at least part of seven counties in south-Central Florida.
That provides an opening for the political newcomer Green, a U.S. Navy veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan who was in the Pentagon on Sept. 11 and has strong GOP bona fides.
Soto, a former member of the state House and Senate first elected to Congress in 2016, touted his record in an interview with the Orlando Sentinel this week. He said he’s helped secure federal funding to develop Lake Nona’s Medical City, expand SunRail to Kissimmee and Poinciana, and restore the Kissimmee chain of lakes.
“There’s a lot of unfinished work for a fast-growing region that I’m ready to continue to deliver for,” he said.
Congressional District 9 underwent the most radical changes of any in Central Florida during the Florida Republicans’ redistricting push earlier this year. The district was previously centered in Osceola County, taking in part of southern Orange County and eastern Polk County.
The new district takes on a drastically different footprint, comprising a far-flung group of constituents, including voters who live in part of south Orlando, suburban and heavily Hispanic areas of Osceola County, rural farmlands surrounding Lake Okeechobee and coastal Vero Beach.
Some pollsters predict Green, a Vero Beach resident, will flip the formerly Democratic-leaning district to Republican control. About 41% of the district’s voters are registered Republicans, while Democrats account for about 29% of the electorate.
The publication Roll Call rated Soto as the most vulnerable Democrat in the U.S. House, according to an article posted earlier this month.
But Silver Bulletin, a political analysis site run by statistician Nate Silver, characterized the race as a “toss-up.”
Meanwhile, the fundraising arm for Congressional Democrats said in May it had selected Soto for its Frontline program, which funnels money and other support toward re-electing Democrats in Congress in competitive races.
Suzan DelBene, chair of the Democratic congressional campaign arm, was in Central Florida recently helping campaign for Soto. She said Soto has long been an “overperformer,” winning by larger-than-expected margins, and the district still has a significant number of Puerto Rican voters who may identify with Soto, the first Floridian of Puerto Rican ancestry to serve in the House.
Green acknowledged to Fox News that his opponent has certain advantages as an incumbent, including name recognition. Still, he said he thinks Republicans can make a play there.
“I think the district, fundamentally, is a conservative district,” Green told Fox. “And I think even non-party affiliated voters who aren’t Democrats or Republicans, tend to be conservative.”
Green has spent much of his career in Washington, D.C., having been appointed by President Donald Trump in 2019 as the deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy and force development in the U.S. Department of Defense.
Today, Green’s campaign website continues to emphasize his allegiance to Trump even as many Republicans running for Congress try to distance themselves from the historically unpopular president.
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Green was the victor in a crowded GOP primary that pitted him against six other candidates, including Thomas Chalifoux Jr., the party’s nominee in 2024.
He loaned $1 million loan to his own campaign and has put out several TV ads, including one highlighting his military service.
He declined a recent interview request from the Orlando Sentinel through a campaign consultant, but spoke to the publication before the primary. He also has appeared at several public forums.
Soto, a Kissimmee resident, criticized Green for declining recent interview requests.
If re-elected, Soto said he would prioritize lowering the cost of living, protecting access to health care and stopping corruption in government.
Ending the war in Iran is also key to lowering costs for Americans, Soto said, noting that it’s raising the costs of gas and fertilizer and driving up food costs.
He also said he wants to end Trump’s tariffs, which have hiked the price of consumer goods, and find “a more humane way” to handle immigration issues. The end of Temporary Protected Status programs, which allowed people from certain countries to legally stay in the U.S., has made it harder for many businesses to find workers.
Green addressed the Iran War in a video published on Fox’s website, saying that Iran has been at war with the U.S. since 1979, when a group of college students seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, taking 66 Americans hostage.
“To me, this has been a long-time coming and the thing we really need to focus on is how do we get a successful termination of this conflict and stability in the Middle East,” Green said during the interview.
He also seems to favor a hard line approach on immigration, praising Trump’s handling of the issue during an interview with the Sentinel in July, while adding “there’s more that needs to be done.” He stressed the need to follow immigration laws in the recent video published on Fox’s website.
“There are ways of being compassionate with how we do that, there are ways of implementing that law more effectively,” he said in the video. “At the end of the day, we are either a nation of laws or we aren’t. We need to do what’s required to make sure the law is enforced.”
Green criticized Soto for voting against the “Big Beautiful Bill” last year, which would have eliminated taxes on overtime pay, Social Security and tips. But Soto said he supported those proposals and voted against the legislation for other reasons, including cuts to Medicare and the addition of an estimated $4 trillion to the national debt.
Green also linked Soto to the Democratic Socialists of America, saying “a vote for him is a vote for them and I think that’s not what this district wants.”
Soto, a member of the bipartisan Problem Solvers caucus who has earned a reputation as a moderate Democrat, said he supports a robust social safety net, including programs like Medicare and Social Security, but denounced any perceived allegiance to the far-left.
“I stand by the vast majority of the Democratic caucus who believes in the capitalist system,” he said.
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