Orlando activist Desmond Meade withdrew from the governor’s race last week, ending what had been a longshot independent campaign for the advocate who spearheaded the 2018 movement to restore voting rights to former felons.
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Meade’s exit most likely boosted prospects for Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Jolly, a former Republican tasked with coaxing progressive Democrats to his campaign.
“If there was a Democrat hesitant to support Jolly because of his past, Desmond stepping away makes the choice in November all the more clear,” said state Rep. Anna Eskamani, an Orlando Democrat. “It narrows the focus and allows us to put everything behind us.”
Last week was a good one for Jolly. After winning the Democratic primary, Jolly played offense following the leak of a Hope Florida grand jury report that concluded Gov. Ron DeSantis’ administration misused $10 million in taxpayer money for political purposes.
While Jolly capitalized on the fallout by nabbing “earned media” on cable TV, an influential elections handicapper said the Democrat faced slightly improved odds against Republican U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds. The Cook Political Report, an independent and nonpartisan newsletter for political insiders, adjusted the race’s outlook from “solid Republican” to merely “likely Republican.”
Donalds remains the heavy favorite, with an edge both in the polls and in campaign donations. The Republican’s total is more than $111 million — and counting. Jolly has raised barely more than $10 million.
Airtime for ads this fall is scarce, so even if Jolly does somehow get a windfall of cash, there won’t be as many available slots to fill.
But Meade leaving the campaign means there isn’t a progressive candidate pulling votes away from Jolly.
Meade, who has said he wouldn’t endorse a candidate for governor, cited the challenges of fundraising as an independent candidate.
“The two party system makes it extremely difficult to raise enough money to operationalize a state wide grassroots campaign,” Meade told the Orlando Sentinel Monday.
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Cook’s adjusted outlook means the outlet now considers an upset in the race a real possibility, providing a glimmer of hope for the Jolly campaign.
“While Jolly trails Trump-backed Donalds by more than a 10-1 margin in fundraising, his ability to potentially reach out to independents and disaffected Republicans make this a unique contest that could possibly become competitive,” wrote Jessica Taylor, the Senate and Governors editor for the Report.
The Cook Political Report claims that it has forecast more than 11,000 elections since 1984, missing only a handful in over 40 years. Such accuracy lends credibility that could entice donors to heed the rating change and contribute, said Jolly’s senior adviser, Mark Riddle.
“Getting it moved to ‘likely’ is a big deal,” Riddle said. “With more resources, this race gets more winnable.”
The Donalds’ campaign dismissed the new rating.
“Nice try,” texted a spokesperson, Gates McGavick. “We look forward to checking on Cook’s pro-Democrat predictions on Nov. 4.”
As Jolly and other Democrats held news conferences this week calling out top Republican officials involved in the Hope Florida scandal, Donalds was busy promoting his running mate, former state Sen. Bryan Ávila.
Donalds was serving in Congress when the scandal unfolded and was not involved. Still, Jolly is pressuring his opponent to side with him and call for a new investigation.
On Saturday, Donalds told the CBS news affiliate in Miami that Jolly was playing politics with Hope Florida.
“He can say what what he wants, but there’s already been two investigations into this,” Donalds said.
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Sentinel staff writer Steven Lemongello contributed to this report.