The National Hurricane Center on Tuesday said a system expected to move into the Gulf could become the season’s first tropical storm.
Read more Asking Eric: My mother is in a tailspin, and she’s trying to blame me
As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook, the broad area of low pressure was inland over south Texas with a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
“The system is forecast to move northeastward along the Texas coast and could emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America later
today or tonight,” forecasters said. “Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical storm late today or on Wednesday, especially if the system moves far enough offshore.”
If it were to become a named system, it would be Tropical Storm Arthur, the first to develop in the Atlantic basin.
“Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should
prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and
river flooding,” forecasters said. “Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast.”
Jun 16 8am EDT: Key Messages for the Disturbance Over the Northwestern Gulf of America. Stay up to date with the latest at https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb and https://t.co/SiZo8ozBbn pic.twitter.com/M38tpMc1BM
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) June 16, 2026
Tropical storm watches or warnings may be required later Tuesday, the NHC stated.
The NHC gives it a 60% chance to develop in the next two days and 60% in the next seven.
The next update is at 2 p.m. with the NHC making updates every six hours at 2 a.m., 8 a.m., 2 p.m. and 8 p.m. for its tropical outlook report.
Read more Scattered showers and storms mixed with intense heat for Central Florida
This is the first potential tropical system being tracked by the NHC in the Atlantic basin since the start of hurricane season.
The eastern Pacific has already been busy with three tropical storms, but so far the Atlantic basin has been quiet.
As the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season begins, NHC Director Dr. Michael Brennan shares an important message about hurricane preparedness.
Learn more at https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb and https://t.co/smDd2LqFsl pic.twitter.com/SbmmQG8Zni
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) June 1, 2026
Hurricane season officially began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. The height of hurricane season runs from mid-August into October.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects this season to be below normal with the official forecast released in late May calling for 8-14 named storms, of which 3-6 would become hurricanes. Of those, 1-3 would become major hurricanes reaching Category 3 status or above.
An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Read more FPL parent company agrees to $150M to end lawsuit over past controversies