The National Hurricane Center on Sunday gave a Gulf system off Florida’s coast a high chance of developing into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.
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In its 8 a.m. tropical outlook, the NHC said the area of low pressure continues to become better defined while its shower and thunderstorm activity has been increasing.
“Continued gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or on Monday as the system moves slowly northward or northwestward,” forecasters said.
8am EDT July 19th – There is a high chance (80%) of a tropical depression forming over the northern Gulf of America. Here are the updated Key Messages on the system (#AL91). pic.twitter.com/5gSmT9OQkL
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) July 19, 2026
The NHC warned that people in the northern Gulf coast from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system.
Tropical storm watches or warnings may be issued later Sunday.
The system is forecast to bring heavy rain to portions of the coast over the next several days.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later Sunday.
The NHC, which began tracking the system on Wednesday, now gives the system an 80% chance to develop in the next two days and 80% in the next seven.
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The National Weather Service in Tampa said rounds of gusty winds and heavy rainfall are possible across west Central Florida and Southwest Florida on Sunday and into early next week.
“A few strong storms will be possible with strong gusty winds and heavy rain. Localized flooding of streets and low lying areas may occur,” forecasters said. “There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall along the
immediate west coast of Florida through Sunday night.”
The 2026 hurricane season so far has had just one named system, the short-lived Tropical Storm Arthur that developed in the Gulf and brought floods to Texas and Louisiana in June.
The next names on the hurricane season list are Bertha and Cristobal.
The season officially began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. The height of hurricane season runs from mid-August into October.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects this season to be below normal with the official forecast released in late May calling for 8-14 named storms, of which 3-6 would become hurricanes. Of those, 1-3 would become major hurricanes reaching Category 3 status or above.
An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
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